Jeremy Lent writes that the resilience of a system will determine whether it can withstand big shocks or if it is likely to collapse from small disturbances. Resilience is the capacity of a system to recover from disturbance. Recovering does not mean staying the same. The most resilient systems are often the ones that adapt to changes in the environment. A healthy forest might experience new vegetation emerging as a result of fires. A resilient system is able to accommodate changes and reorganise itself, while keeping the features that make that system unique.
The adaptive cycle model is general theory of change in complex systems. The cycle starts with a rapid growth phase. At this stage innovation actions takes advantage of new opportunities. Then the system moves to a conservation phase. Rules are established and connections become important. This phase can be very long-lasting during which it seems the future is quite predictable. But as time goes on the system resists change and so becomes more fragile. It loses resilience. At this stage even a small disturbance can cause the system to collapse. This is the release phase. After the collapse, there is chaos and uncertainty, but there is also new opportunities for creativity. Small events can have big impacts on the future. In a natural system new species can emerge. In the social system strong personalities can have large impacts on the public. The future is open and unwritten.